Renate Kenter, Strategy Consultant, facilitator, and teacher with De Ruijter Strategy
Scenario planning is a strategic method of addressing uncertainty in the future. Long used by corporate boards and executives, its application in association management is gaining traction. By describing several scenarios for the future and then thinking about the implications, you create a more prepared and agile organization.
Start with what’s possible
Thinkers are recognized for their ability ‘to see around corners’ anticipating rather than reacting. To prepare for what may come, you also need an eye on happening in the market - especially developments, events, and trends the association does not influence but is affected by. The advantage of this method is that members, staff, stakeholders, and even external thought leaders knowledge, expertise, and imagination are critical to the process. It employs a trend survey, where there are no bad ideas. It is open to the widest possible spectrum of subjects and captures not only facts, but ideas, opinions, and observations. These include demographic, economic, environmental, political, technological, and social developments. Subsequently, driving forces and uncertainties with regard to these developments can be identified. This provides the insight mapping to the outside world and leads to new, more-informed strategic questions.